Gold Near Resistance

 

Gold Price Hesitates Near $4,800 as Inflation Concerns Offset USD Weakness

Gold prices are showing a modest intraday recovery from the $4,737–$4,738 zone—marking a one-week low reached earlier on Monday—while hovering near the $4,800 level ahead of the European session. The US Dollar has retreated from its one-week high, pausing its rebound from nearly two-month lows recorded last Friday. This pullback in the greenback is currently providing key support to the precious metal.

However, the XAU/USD pair is struggling to sustain momentum above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and establish a firm position above $4,800. Technical indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remaining in negative territory. This signals that bearish pressure still dominates unless gold can break decisively above nearby resistance levels.

The 100-hour SMA at $4,805.60 stands as the immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above this level is essential to ease the current bearish bias and open the door for a stronger upside move. As long as gold trades below this barrier, any rally is likely to attract selling interest rather than confirm a lasting bullish reversal.

Meanwhile, an intraday surge in crude oil prices has reignited inflation concerns and pushed US Treasury yields slightly higher. This could limit further gains in gold, as the non-yielding asset tends to struggle in a rising yield environment.

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz continue to dampen hopes for renewed peace negotiations before the current ceasefire expires on April 22. The US Navy recently intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman as part of its blockade. Iran has condemned the move as a violation of the ceasefire agreement and has once again closed the strategic waterway after briefly reopening it following a 10-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah last Friday.

US President Donald Trump stated that the naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain in place until a peace agreement is reached. The White House also confirmed that Vice President JD Vance will lead another delegation for a second round of talks aimed at ending the conflict. However, Iranian state media reported that officials will not participate while the US blockade continues.

These developments have reduced the likelihood of a near-term peace deal, fueling renewed global risk aversion and supporting the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Still, USD bulls remain cautious amid declining expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is roughly a 40% probability of a Fed rate cut by year-end. This outlook is capping significant USD gains and offering some support to gold prices. Nevertheless, the lack of strong follow-through buying suggests traders should remain cautious before expecting a sustained upward trend from the March swing low around $4,100.

With no major US economic data scheduled for release, both the US Dollar and gold prices are likely to remain driven by ongoing developments in US-Iran geopolitical tensions.

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Gold Under Pressure

 

Gold Prices Near Daily Lows as Strong USD Holds Firm Amid Hormuz Risks

Gold prices remained under pressure for a third consecutive session, staying below the key $4,800 level as a stronger US Dollar limited upside momentum. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East, lingering friction between the United States and Iran—driven by continued US naval blockades of Iranian ports—continues to support the greenback’s safe-haven status and weigh on the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, gold’s failure to break above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart signals caution for bullish traders. However, downside movement has so far found support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March decline. This suggests that traders may wait for a decisive break below the $4,765 support zone before confirming further bearish momentum.

Momentum indicators remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to trend lower in negative territory. This combination indicates that sellers still hold a tactical advantage unless gold reclaims the key resistance at the 200-period SMA around $4,814. A sustained breakout above this level could open the door toward the stronger Fibonacci resistance at $4,912 (61.8% retracement), followed by potential targets at $5,130 and $5,409.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $4,759, aligned with the 50% retracement level. A break below this point could expose further declines toward $4,606 and $4,416, where buyers may step in to defend the broader uptrend structure.

Meanwhile, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has raised hopes for a potential long-term peace agreement between the US and Iran. Former US President Donald Trump expressed optimism, stating that Iran is close to reaching a deal. According to the Wall Street Journal, Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle to resume negotiations, although no specific timeline or venue has been confirmed.

These developments have contributed to a more positive risk sentiment, while declining expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have capped the US Dollar’s recovery from multi-week lows. This, in turn, has helped gold rebound from intraday lows around $4,768–$4,767.

Earlier in the week, US Producer Price Index (PPI) data eased inflation concerns linked to rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. Additionally, expectations of further de-escalation in the Middle East have kept crude oil prices subdued, reducing hawkish pressure on the Fed. Market participants are currently pricing in around a 30% chance of a rate cut by year-end, limiting further USD gains and providing some support for non-yielding assets like gold.

Looking ahead, the absence of major US economic data on Friday leaves the US Dollar sensitive to speeches from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members. However, investor focus will remain on the upcoming US-Iran peace talks, potentially scheduled for the weekend. Any new developments could drive volatility in financial markets and create trading opportunities in gold. Despite recent weakness, XAU/USD remains on track to post a modest gain for the third consecutive week.

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Gold Demand Rises

 Gold Prices Fluctuate as Investment Demand Continues to Rise

Gold prices have shown notable fluctuations since the beginning of 2026. Despite this volatility, gold remains a preferred investment asset among investors seeking stability and long-term value.

According to data from Trading Economics, global gold prices stood at approximately US$4,300 per troy ounce on January 2. Prices then surged to around US$5,400 per troy ounce by January 28. However, by March 23, 2026, gold retreated to about US$4,400 per troy ounce before rebounding to approximately US$4,800 per troy ounce on April 16, 2026.

Chikita Rosemarie, Public Relations Manager at PT Central Mega Kencana (CMK), stated that demand for gold and diamond jewelry remains strong despite ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties. The company, which manages brands such as The Palace, Frank & Co, Mondial, and Laku Emas, continues to see consistent interest from consumers in both physical and digital gold investments.

“Amid global geopolitical concerns, people tend to secure their assets. This drives consistent—and even increasing—demand for gold, jewelry, and digital gold,” Chikita said on Thursday (April 16, 2026).

She added that gold sales at The Palace recorded growth in the first quarter of 2026, meeting the company’s internal targets. Although specific growth figures were not disclosed, the upward trend reflects sustained consumer confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset.

“We remain committed to improving product accessibility, ensuring that more people can diversify their assets through gold ownership,” Chikita explained.

Looking ahead, The Palace plans to launch the “Semarak Pengundian Nasional The Palace 2026” program. This initiative aims to reward customers with prizes ranging from gold and diamond jewelry to motorcycles, while also enhancing customer engagement and accessibility to jewelry products.

In addition to physical gold, digital gold trading is gaining significant traction. Data from the Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX), also known as Bursa Komoditi dan Derivatif Indonesia (BKDI), shows substantial growth in digital gold transactions.

In the first quarter of 2026, total transactions reached 30,921,382 grams—an increase of 246% compared to 8,941,108 grams recorded during the same period in Q1 2025.

ICDX Director Nursalam noted that this growth highlights increasing public interest in digital gold trading within the futures exchange market. However, he also urged caution, reminding investors to be vigilant about various digital gold trading offers circulating on social media.

Moving forward, ICDX plans to collaborate with key stakeholders, including regulators such as Bappebti, to further expand the ecosystem and drive higher transaction volumes.

“Based on the positive trend in the first quarter of 2026, we are optimistic that transactions will continue to grow throughout the year,” Nursalam concluded.

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Gold Trading Surge

Digital Gold Trading Surges 246% in Q1 2026 as Investor Interest Soars

Digital gold trading in Indonesia is experiencing rapid growth, with transactions on the Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX), also known as the Bursa Komoditi dan Derivatif Indonesia, rising sharply in early 2026.

According to ICDX data, total digital physical gold transactions reached 30,921,382 grams in the first quarter of 2026, marking a remarkable 246% increase compared to 8,941,108 grams recorded during the same period in Q1 2025. Throughout 2025, total transactions in this market reached 56,595,115 grams, highlighting strong and consistent growth.

ICDX Director Nursalam stated that the significant rise in Q1 2026 reflects growing public interest in digital gold trading on futures exchanges. However, he also urged investors to remain cautious of misleading digital gold offers circulating on social media.

Looking ahead, ICDX plans to collaborate with key stakeholders, including regulators such as Badan Pengawas Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi, to further strengthen and expand the digital gold ecosystem.

“We are optimistic that transaction growth will remain positive through the end of 2026 based on current trends,” Nursalam said in an official statement on April 15, 2026.

Meanwhile, Bappebti Head Tirta Karma Senjaya emphasized that since the inception of digital gold trading in Indonesia, regulators have ensured that all traded gold is backed by physical assets. This measure is crucial for maintaining investor protection and trust.

Within this ecosystem, Bappebti oversees all key components, including exchanges as trading platforms, clearing institutions responsible for transaction guarantees and settlements, and depository institutions that securely store the physical gold.

Bappebti expects the digital gold ecosystem to continue expanding and become a popular alternative investment option for the public.

Data from Bappebti in 2025 shows that the total number of investors in digital gold trading reached 10.5 million. Younger investors dominate the market, with 36.3% aged 25–34 and 32.6% aged 18–24. Students account for the largest professional group at 35.1%.

In terms of transaction behavior, 94.9% of investors trade less than 1 gram of gold, while 92.6% conduct transactions valued below IDR 1 million, indicating strong participation from retail and beginner investors.

Regulations governing digital gold trading in Indonesia are outlined in Bappebti Regulation No. 3 of 2025, which establishes the framework for trading physical gold digitally on futures exchanges.

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Gold Near 4800

Gold Eyes $4,800 as Weaker US Dollar Boosts Bullion Demand

Gold prices extended their rebound on Tuesday, climbing toward the $4,800 level after recovering strongly from below $4,650 in the previous session. Despite stalled US-Iran peace talks over the weekend, investors remain cautiously optimistic that diplomatic negotiations will continue. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding future interest rate moves by the Federal Reserve is weighing on the US Dollar, providing additional support for gold.

Technical Analysis: Gold Faces Key Resistance Near $4,855

Following its recent recovery, a sustained move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March decline could act as a key trigger for bullish momentum in XAU/USD. However, gold remains capped below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,854.58, keeping the broader market sentiment slightly bearish.

Momentum indicators show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 57, indicating mild bullish bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is approaching the zero line—suggesting that bearish pressure is easing but not fully reversed.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period SMA near $4,855, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,913. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a rally toward $5,133 and potentially the cycle high at $5,413.

On the downside, initial support lies at the 50% Fibonacci level around $4,759, with further support at $4,604 (38.2%) and $4,413. A break below these levels could expose a deeper decline toward $4,104.

Fundamental Outlook: Fed Uncertainty and Geopolitics Drive Gold

Market sentiment remains influenced by a mix of geopolitical tensions and monetary policy expectations. US Vice President JD Vance struck a cautiously optimistic tone regarding negotiations with Iran, noting progress despite the lack of a breakthrough. Hopes for a potential agreement have improved overall risk sentiment, weakening the US Dollar and supporting USD-denominated assets like gold.

Meanwhile, escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to raise concerns over energy-driven inflation. Recent data showed US consumer inflation surged to its highest level in nearly four years in March, largely due to rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions.

Despite this, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 30% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by December. Expectations of lower interest rates are typically bullish for non-yielding assets like gold, further pressuring the US Dollar.

Gold prices recently touched the $4,777 region, although gains remain limited amid ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump announced the start of a naval blockade in the strategic waterway, warning of military action against Iranian vessels. In response, Iran threatened ports across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.

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Gold Outlook Volatile

 

Gold Price Outlook Remains Volatile This Week: Spot and Antam Trends to Watch

Gold price prospects remain highly volatile this week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and shifting global interest rate expectations.

According to Trading Economics on Monday (April 13) at 11:30 WIB, global gold prices are currently hovering around US$4,712 per troy ounce, marking a 5.9% decline over the past month.

Meanwhile, based on data from Logam Mulia, the price of Antam gold dropped to Rp 2,818,000 per gram, down Rp 42,000 on a daily basis.

Short-Term Gold Outlook: Correction Still Possible

Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that gold prices still have the potential to correct in the short term.

For this week, he forecasts global gold support at US$4,638 per troy ounce, with Antam gold potentially easing to around Rp 2,840,000 per gram, reflecting a correction of approximately Rp 20,000.

“If selling pressure continues, gold prices could fall deeper toward US$4,358 per troy ounce by the end of the week, while Antam gold may decline to Rp 2,780,000 per gram,” Ibrahim said on Sunday (April 12, 2026).

Upside Potential Remains Open

Despite downside risks, the upside potential for gold remains intact. Ibrahim projects resistance at US$4,897 per troy ounce, with Antam gold possibly rising to Rp 2,880,000 per gram.

In a more bullish scenario, global gold prices could surge past US$5,138 per troy ounce, potentially pushing Antam gold to as high as Rp 3,100,000 per gram.

Key Drivers: Geopolitics and Interest Rates

The wide trading range in gold prices is largely influenced by global factors, particularly geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

Ibrahim noted that potential negotiations between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, could open the door to a temporary ceasefire. If stability is achieved, oil prices may decline, easing inflation and increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve—conditions that are favorable for gold.

On the other hand, if ceasefire efforts fail and tensions escalate, oil prices and the US dollar could strengthen, further boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

US-China Tensions and Fed Policy Support Gold

Rising tensions between the United States and China over military support to Iran are also supporting gold prices. This situation may pressure emerging market currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah, thereby lifting domestic gold prices such as Antam.

From a monetary policy perspective, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts remain a key bullish catalyst. A more accommodative stance from the US central bank is expected to support global gold prices.

Additionally, Donald Trump’s decision to appoint Kevin Warsh signals potential policy alignment between the US government and the central bank, particularly regarding interest rate cuts—further strengthening gold’s outlook.

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