Gold Recovery Limited

 

Gold Prices Rebound From Multi-Month Lows, but Strong USD and Hawkish Fed Bets Cap Gains

Gold prices staged a modest recovery from the $4,480 region during Monday’s trading session after touching their lowest level since March 30 in Asian markets. However, upside momentum remains limited as a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continue to pressure the precious metal.

Persistent demand for the U.S. dollar has been fueled by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. At the same time, rising crude oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve could maintain a more hawkish monetary policy stance. This environment continues to support the greenback while limiting gains for non-yielding assets such as gold.

From a technical perspective, last week’s failure near the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance suggests that bearish momentum is strengthening. A sustained move below the psychological $4,500 level could confirm a broader downward trend in gold prices.

Technical indicators also point to weak buying interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 40, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to show negative readings, validating the short-term bearish outlook for gold.

Market attention is now focused on the broader support zone near the 200-day SMA at $4,352.59. A decisive break below this area could expose gold to deeper corrective losses in the coming sessions. On the upside, the 100-day SMA at $4,790.55 remains the first major resistance level that buyers need to reclaim to ease current downside pressure.

Middle East Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Demand for USD

Geopolitical risks intensified after a drone strike reportedly caused a fire at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia announced it had intercepted three drones launched from Iraq and warned that it would take necessary operational measures to defend its sovereignty and security.

Adding to market concerns, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran to move quickly toward a peace agreement or face severe consequences. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated that “time is running out” and emphasized that immediate action was necessary.

These developments have increased fears of a broader escalation in the Middle East while weakening hopes for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. As a result, investors continue to favor the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Additionally, U.S. restrictions on Iranian ports and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices to their highest levels in two weeks. The surge in oil prices has strengthened expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated into 2026.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in more than a 50% probability that the Fed could raise borrowing costs again before year-end. This outlook continues to support higher U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting USD bulls and limiting gold’s recovery potential.

Gold Outlook Remains Bearish Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD remains to the downside. Any additional rebound in gold prices may attract fresh selling pressure, especially in the absence of major U.S. economic data releases on Monday.

Market participants are now turning their attention to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction. Traders will also closely monitor the release of preliminary global PMI data later this week.

Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical headlines are expected to keep financial markets volatile, potentially driving further demand for the U.S. dollar and influencing gold price movements.

In physical gold markets, discounts in India surged to record highs last week, while strong investment demand in China kept premiums elevated above global benchmark prices. However, these supportive demand factors may have limited impact as escalating Iran tensions, rising inflation concerns, and hawkish Fed expectations continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on gold prices.

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Gold Prices Slide

 

Gold Price Extends Weekly Pullback as Stronger US Dollar Weighs on XAU/USD

Gold prices are expected to extend their weekly pullback from monthly highs, falling for a fourth consecutive session on Friday amid sustained buying interest in the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level since April 8, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions and stronger US economic data.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding stalled US-Iran peace negotiations, particularly disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and the strategic Strait of Hormuz, continues to keep geopolitical risks elevated. This backdrop has strengthened demand for the safe-haven US Dollar while pressuring non-yielding assets such as gold.

Technical Analysis: Gold Faces Bearish Momentum Below Key Support

From a technical perspective, repeated failures near the $4,765-$4,770 resistance zone have formed a bearish double-top pattern. A decisive break below the $4,670 confluence area — which includes the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from around $4,500 — confirmed the downside outlook.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains deeply in negative territory at -5.58, reinforcing bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 26.5, signaling oversold conditions that may slow the decline but are not yet strong enough to reverse the broader bearish trend.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,605.89, followed by secondary support at the 78.6% retracement level near $4,560.62 and the previous swing low around $4,502.95.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50% retracement level of $4,637.69. Additional resistance appears within the broader consolidation zone between the 38.2% retracement at $4,669.49 and the 200-hour SMA at $4,673.40. Further recovery attempts may face stronger barriers near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $4,708.83.

Fundamental Outlook: Hawkish Fed Expectations Boost USD

Rising expectations for another interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve continue to support the US Dollar and weaken demand for gold bullion.

US President Donald Trump stated in an interview aired Thursday on Fox News that he would not remain patient with Iran and urged Tehran to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, reports of a commercial vessel being seized by Iranian personnel near the coast of the United Arab Emirates raised concerns over energy supply flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz, supporting elevated crude oil prices.

Additionally, hotter-than-expected US inflation data and stronger US Retail Sales figures released this week reinforced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April, while core CPI rose to 2.8%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) also surged 1.4% last month, pushing the annual rate to 6.0%.

Furthermore, US Retail Sales increased for the third straight month in April, highlighting resilient consumer spending despite mounting inflationary pressures. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in nearly a 40% probability of another Fed rate hike before year-end. This outlook continues to strengthen the US Dollar and adds pressure to gold prices.

US-China Talks and Middle East Tensions Could Drive Market Volatility

Market sentiment toward US-China relations has improved slightly following high-level talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, Xi warned that mishandling the Taiwan issue could trigger “confrontation or even conflict” between the two global powers.

Trump and Xi are scheduled to continue their discussions for a second day in Beijing, and further headlines could generate additional volatility across global financial markets. At the same time, investors remain focused on developments in the Middle East crisis for short-term trading opportunities.

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the broader fundamental backdrop continues to favor sellers, leaving the XAU/USD pair on track to post weekly losses.

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Gold Expansion Catalyst

PTRO Gold Mining Expansion Becomes New Growth Catalyst, Here’s the Recommendation

The performance outlook of PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) is projected to remain promising throughout 2026 as the company accelerates its business expansion into the gold mining sector in Papua New Guinea.

This strategic move marks PTRO’s commodity diversification beyond its long-established strength in coal mining services. Earlier, the company completed a binding offer transaction with Tolu Minerals Limited on April 20, 2026.

Through the deal, Petrosea secured a convertible note worth AU$23.75 million, opening opportunities for operational collaboration in the gold mining industry.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Senior Equity Research Analyst Sukarno Alatas stated that the expansion into gold mining represents a positive strategy to broaden the company’s revenue streams while reducing dependence on the coal business.

“This diversification is considered favorable because gold offers attractive long-term prospects amid elevated global commodity prices,” Sukarno said on Wednesday (May 13, 2026).

Based on the company’s financial report, PTRO posted revenue of US$284.13 million in the first quarter of 2026, surging 84.24% year-on-year (YoY) compared to US$154.22 million recorded in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the company booked net profit attributable to parent entity owners of US$1.39 million, up 50.54% YoY from US$920,000 previously.

According to Sukarno, PTRO’s performance this year still has strong growth potential, supported by a solid contract backlog, contributions from new projects, and the gradual expansion of its non-coal businesses.

Beyond the gold mining expansion, the analyst sees continued growth in mining services activity and the possibility of securing additional contracts as key catalysts for PTRO throughout 2026.

In addition, contributions from engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects, along with infrastructure developments, are expected to support the company’s revenue growth this year.

“From a macro perspective, relatively stable coal prices, strong gold price trends, and increasing spending in the national energy and downstream sectors remain positive sentiments for the company,” he explained.

However, Sukarno reminded investors to remain cautious of several risks, including commodity price volatility, rising operational costs, and potential global economic slowdowns that could affect the mining sector’s performance.

Fundamentally, PTRO shares are still viewed as attractive, backed by business expansion initiatives and strong revenue visibility.

Therefore, Kiwoom Sekuritas maintains a buy recommendation for PTRO shares with a target price of Rp8,325 per share.

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Petrosea Gold Expansion

Petrosea’s Strong Backlog and Gold Diversification Support PTRO’s 2026 Outlook

The business outlook for PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) in 2026 remains attractive as the company expands into the gold mining sector in Papua New Guinea through its investment in Tolu Minerals Limited.

PTRO completed its binding offer process with Tolu Minerals Limited on April 20, 2026. Through the transaction, Petrosea secured a convertible note worth AUD 23.75 million, creating opportunities for future operational cooperation in the gold mining industry.

KISI Sekuritas Head of Research, Muhammad Wafi, stated that the expansion could strengthen PTRO’s business diversification strategy, as the company has long been recognized as a major player in coal mining services.

“The 2026 outlook is quite promising. Profitability could improve significantly once new projects begin contributing,” Wafi told Kontan on Tuesday (May 12, 2026).

However, he noted that PTRO’s investment in Tolu Minerals is unlikely to contribute directly to revenue in the short term. The investment is still structured as a financial instrument that may later be converted into equity ownership or mining service contracts.

According to Wafi, PTRO’s main performance catalyst continues to come from its solid long-term contract backlog, which provides strong revenue visibility for the company over the next several years.

In addition, elevated global gold prices amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran are also seen as a positive factor supporting PTRO’s gold diversification narrative.

“High global gold prices support PTRO’s gold diversification story, even though revenue from Tolu has not yet materialized in the near term,” he said.

Meanwhile, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas Fundamental Analyst Abida Massi Armand also highlighted several positive catalysts expected to support PTRO’s performance.

First, the company is expected to monetize its backlog from long-term contracts with Freeport Indonesia and Bara Prima Mandiri.

Second, PTRO is accelerating its engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (EPCI) segment through the integration of Hafar and Scan-Bilt, reflected in a US$9.5 million contract win from Petronas.

The company is also expanding internationally into Pakistan through an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) project with Reko Diq Mining Company.

Despite the positive outlook, PTRO still faces several risks that investors should monitor. Regulatory changes in Indonesia’s mining sector remain a major concern, particularly regarding potential reductions in RKAB approvals and higher taxes that could weaken interest in new mining projects.

Wafi also warned about additional risks, including high interest expenses and operational challenges in new regions such as Papua New Guinea.

For investment recommendations, Wafi maintained a “buy” rating on PTRO shares with a target price of Rp 8,000 per share.

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Antam Gold Surges

Antam Gold Prices Today Jump Rp40,000 to Rp2.859 Million Per Gram

Certified Antam gold bullion produced by PT Aneka Tambang Tbk recorded a sharp increase on Tuesday, May 12, 2026.

According to the official Logam Mulia website, the price of 1 gram of Antam gold rose to Rp2,859,000 per gram. The latest price surged Rp40,000 compared to Monday, May 11, 2026, when gold was traded at Rp2,819,000 per gram.

Meanwhile, the Antam gold buyback price also climbed significantly to Rp2,676,000 per gram. This marked an increase of Rp50,000 from the previous buyback price of Rp2,626,000 per gram recorded on Monday.

The rally in Antam gold prices reflects stronger demand for precious metals amid ongoing global market uncertainty and fluctuating economic conditions.

Latest Antam Gold Prices Today – Tuesday, May 12, 2026

(Prices exclude taxes)

• 0.5 gram gold: Rp1,479,500

• 1 gram gold: Rp2,859,000

• 5 gram gold: Rp14,110,000

• 10 gram gold: Rp28,140,000

• 25 gram gold: Rp70,185,000

• 50 gram gold: Rp140,205,000

• 100 gram gold: Rp280,260,000

• 250 gram gold: Rp700,340,000

• 500 gram gold: Rp1,400,400,000

• 1,000 gram gold: Rp2,799,600,000

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Gold Below Pressure

Gold Slips Below $4,700 as Market Sentiment Weakens

Gold prices (XAU/USD) traded under pressure on Monday, fluctuating below the $4,700 level as the US Dollar regained strength. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty continued to reinforce the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal, while growing expectations of a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve further weighed on the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a neutral tone after repeatedly failing last week to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May decline. However, downside movement remained limited near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed slightly above the 50 mark, signaling a modest bullish bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained below zero with negative readings, suggesting that bullish momentum is still not fully convincing.

Meanwhile, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement around $4,696 is expected to act as immediate resistance, followed by stronger barriers near the 61.8% retracement at $4,743 and the 78.6% level around $4,810. A sustained breakout above these levels could pave the way toward the recent cycle high near $4,894. On the downside, the 200-period SMA at $4,675 provides initial support ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,650, while deeper support levels are seen around $4,592 and the structural low near $4,498.

Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement and conflict de-escalation faded rapidly amid renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, both US President Donald Trump and Iran rejected each other’s peace proposals aimed at ending the conflict and gradually reopening the strategic waterway, largely due to major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program.

According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, Iran refused US demands to dismantle its nuclear facilities and halt uranium enrichment activities for the next 20 years. President Trump quickly criticized Iran’s response, calling it “completely unacceptable.” These developments kept geopolitical risks elevated, supporting the US Dollar and increasing downside pressure on gold prices.

At the same time, rising crude oil prices revived inflation concerns, while stronger-than-expected US employment data released on Friday strengthened the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added 115,000 new jobs in April, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%.

Furthermore, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that traders are currently pricing in more than a 20% probability that the Federal Reserve could implement at least one additional 25-basis-point interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook continued to support the US Dollar and reinforced bearish pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, traders remain cautious ahead of key US inflation data releases this week, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will also closely monitor upcoming US Retail Sales data and speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for further clues on monetary policy direction.

Despite the recent weakness, the absence of aggressive follow-through selling suggests caution before confirming that gold’s rebound from the psychological $4,500 level — its lowest point in more than a month reached last week — has completely lost momentum.

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