Gold Below $4100

Gold Falls Below $4,100 as Middle East Tensions Boost US Dollar Ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold prices extended their losses during the European session on Wednesday, with XAU/USD falling below the key $4,100 level as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fueled demand for the U.S. dollar. Investors adopted a cautious stance after U.S. President Donald Trump declared at the NATO Summit that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with Iran to end the conflict was "over," adding that he had no intention of resuming negotiations with Tehran.

The stronger U.S. dollar, supported by renewed safe-haven inflows, weighed heavily on the precious metal. Risk sentiment deteriorated as markets reacted to the latest escalation between the United States and Iran, prompting investors to shift capital toward the Greenback.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Remains Intact

On the daily chart, XAU/USD traded at $4,129.61, maintaining a bearish outlook as the price remained below all major moving averages. Spot gold continued to trade beneath the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,139.93, while the 50-day SMA at $4,373.87, 200-day SMA at $4,491.31, and 100-day SMA at $4,611.31 reinforced a strong long-term resistance zone.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stood at 44.41, remaining below the neutral 50 level and signaling weakening bullish momentum rather than oversold conditions.

Immediate resistance is located at the 21-day SMA near $4,139.93, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,373.87. Additional resistance lies at the 200-day SMA and 100-day SMA, which together form a significant supply zone. Unless gold can reclaim these technical levels, the downside bias is likely to remain intact. With no major structural support currently visible, further declines remain possible unless renewed buying interest emerges.

US-Iran Conflict Revives Safe-Haven Demand for the Dollar

Gold's brief recovery came to an end ahead of the European market open as the U.S. dollar rebounded following Tuesday's sell-off. The Greenback regained its safe-haven appeal after geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran intensified once again.

The renewed conflict also pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, reviving inflation concerns and reducing investors' appetite for risk assets.

According to reports, the U.S. military launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday while revoking export licenses that had allowed Iranian oil sales after three oil tankers were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the United States of violating key provisions of the ceasefire memorandum of understanding. Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had targeted 85 U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation for the alleged ceasefire breach and announced that it had shot down a U.S. MQ-9 drone over southern Iran.

Fed Minutes in Focus as Rate Hike Expectations Increase

Beyond geopolitical developments, investors are closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for fresh guidance on the central bank's interest rate outlook.

Despite weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM Services PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls data, markets have recently increased expectations that the Fed could resume tightening monetary policy. Rising oil prices and renewed inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict have further strengthened this view.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September interest rate hike has climbed to more than 63%, up from roughly 57% a day earlier.

Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to remain highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and any policy signals emerging from the Fed minutes. A stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yield expectations could continue to pressure bullion, while any escalation in geopolitical risks may provide temporary safe-haven support for the precious metal.

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Gold Holds Weakness

Gold Prices Stay Under Pressure as Rising US Bond Yields, Stronger Dollar, and Hormuz Tensions Weigh on Bullion

Gold prices remained under pressure during the European session on Tuesday, although the precious metal continued to trade above the key $4,100 level. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude oil prices, reviving inflation concerns that pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthened the U.S. dollar, adding fresh pressure to non-yielding bullion.

The XAU/USD pair maintained a bearish short-term outlook after remaining below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,489.97 while continuing to trade inside a descending channel. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive—with the MACD line crossing above the signal line and the histogram expanding into positive territory—the bullish momentum remains insufficient to reverse the prevailing downtrend.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.16, remaining below the neutral 50 mark and signaling that bearish sentiment still dominates despite the recent rebound.

Gold Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

The $4,100 level continues to act as immediate support for gold prices. A sustained break below this area could expose the lower boundary of the descending channel near $3,844.34, where stronger buying interest is expected to emerge.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located around the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,296.64. Additional resistance is seen at the 200-day SMA around $4,489.97, followed by a stronger structural barrier near $4,572.41.

Fed Rate Expectations Could Limit Gold's Downside

Despite the current bearish pressure, expectations for fewer Federal Reserve interest rate hikes could prevent a deeper decline in gold prices.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated as Tehran seeks to strengthen its strategic control over one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. Iranian officials continue to defend proposed transit charges as fees for maritime security, vessel monitoring, and environmental protection rather than tolls, despite strong opposition from the United States.

Adding to market concerns, a maritime agency reported that an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The incident has raised doubts over the fragile peace agreement between the United States and Iran, providing additional support for crude oil prices and fueling inflation concerns.

Weak US Jobs Data Reduces Fed Tightening Bets

Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June prompted investors to scale back expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening.

Market participants have shifted their outlook from anticipating one or two rate hikes in 2026 to expecting between zero and one increase, limiting further gains in the U.S. dollar and reducing bearish pressure on gold.

Recent economic data also offered little support for the greenback. The ISM Services PMI eased to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, matching market expectations but failing to provide fresh momentum for the U.S. currency.

FOMC Minutes in Focus as Investors Await Fresh Policy Signals

Investors are now refraining from making aggressive directional bets ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which are expected to provide additional guidance on the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path.

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East will also remain a major driver for the U.S. dollar and gold prices in the coming sessions.

For now, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests traders should wait for stronger selling pressure before concluding that gold's recent rebound from its yearly low has completely lost momentum.

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Gold Holds Firm

Gold Price Holds Near Daily Lows as Hormuz Tensions Support US Dollar, While Dovish Fed Outlook Limits Downside

Gold prices traded near their daily lows on Monday, although losses remained limited as fading expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes offset renewed safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The precious metal recovered modestly from intraday lows but remained below the two-week high reached earlier in the session. Investors continued to weigh geopolitical risks against the prospect of a less aggressive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve.

Technical Outlook: Gold Remains Constructive Above Key Support

Friday's breakout above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart, combined with a move above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline, reinforced bullish momentum for XAU/USD.

Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains elevated near 63, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact despite the current consolidation below recent highs.

On the downside, immediate support is located around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,164, followed by the 100-period SMA near $4,147. A decisive break below this level could expose the next major structural support around $3,940.

On the upside, initial resistance stands at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,302, followed by the 50% retracement at $4,415 and the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $4,527. A sustained breakout above these levels could pave the way toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,686, with the April swing high near $4,889 serving as the next major bullish target.

Geopolitical Risks and Fed Expectations Shape Gold Outlook

Persistent buying by global central banks continues to provide a strong underlying support for gold, helping limit losses after the precious metal ended a three-session winning streak.

Despite a fragile temporary agreement between the United States and Iran, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Iran recently announced plans to introduce new service fees for vessels passing through the strategically important waterway, while the United States rejected the proposal. The renewed uncertainty has boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, creating short-term headwinds for gold.

However, expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes have weakened following softer-than-expected US employment data released last Thursday. The latest labor market figures pointed to easing employment conditions, reinforcing speculation that the Fed could adopt a more patient approach toward monetary policy.

At the same time, declining crude oil prices have eased inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. This shift has prevented the US dollar from gaining stronger upside momentum and has helped cushion gold's downside.

Central Bank Demand Continues to Support Gold Prices

Long-term demand for gold remains robust, driven largely by continued central bank purchases.

A recent World Gold Council survey revealed that central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic hedge against inflation, financial instability, and geopolitical uncertainty. Nearly 90% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) reported that gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries as a share of global reserve assets, highlighting the metal's growing importance in international reserve management.

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold holdings by 320,000 ounces in May, marking the 19th consecutive month of reserve accumulation.

Market Focus Shifts to US ISM Services PMI and Fed Speakers

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming US ISM Services PMI report, along with speeches from several influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials. These events could provide fresh clues about the future direction of US monetary policy and influence demand for both the US dollar and gold.

Despite short-term volatility, the broader fundamental backdrop continues to favor higher gold prices. Ongoing central bank buying, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and easing expectations for additional Fed tightening suggest that any intraday pullbacks are likely to attract buyers, keeping the broader bullish outlook intact.

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Gold Recovery Continues

 

Gold Needs Weekly Close Above $4,165 to Sustain Recovery

Gold prices extended their post-US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rally on Friday, climbing to an eight-day high just below the $4,200 mark as the US dollar weakened amid fading expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Despite the rebound, technical indicators continue to favor a "sell-on-rallies" strategy, with bearish momentum and the Death Cross pattern remaining intact.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) traded at $4,182.02 during the European session, supported by broad US dollar weakness. The greenback remained on track for weekly losses as traders scaled back bets on additional Fed tightening following disappointing US employment data and continued selling pressure in the USD/JPY pair.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

From a technical perspective, gold's short-term outlook remains negative despite recovering from recent multi-month lows.

XAU/USD continues to trade below its key moving averages, including the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,402.46, the 200-day SMA at $4,486.06, and the 100-day SMA at $4,636.39. This keeps the broader bearish trend intact even as prices rebound.

The 21-day SMA at $4,165.03 is currently acting as immediate dynamic support. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47.24, remaining below the neutral 50 level and suggesting that bearish momentum has weakened but has not yet shifted into bullish territory.

Adding to the cautious outlook, the Death Cross remains active after the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA during last week's weekly close, reinforcing sellers' control over the longer-term trend.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

On the upside, the first major resistance is located around the 50-day SMA at $4,402.46. Additional resistance levels are seen at the 200-day SMA near $4,486.06 and the 100-day SMA at $4,636.39. This cluster of technical barriers is likely to limit further upside unless gold achieves a decisive breakout.

On the downside, immediate support remains at the 21-day SMA near $4,165.03. A sustained break below this level could expose gold to renewed selling pressure and potentially retest lower price levels. Holding above this support would allow bullion to consolidate while maintaining the broader bearish structure.

Weak US Jobs Data Boosts Gold Demand

Gold buying interest remained resilient after the precious metal rebounded sharply from a seven-month low of $3,942 recorded earlier this week.

The recovery was fueled by continued weakness in the US dollar against major global currencies following disappointing US economic data and easing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.

On Thursday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, significantly below market expectations of 110,000. Meanwhile, the Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 61.5%, its lowest level in more than five years.

The weaker-than-expected labor market data reinforced concerns about slowing economic momentum and encouraged traders to reduce expectations of another Fed rate increase later this year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price in roughly a 54% probability of a September rate hike, down from 66% before the employment report was released.

Softer Fed Outlook Weighs on US Dollar

Additional pressure on the US dollar came from recent comments by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who struck a less hawkish tone during the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra.

Warsh noted that easing inflation expectations were encouraging, reinforcing market hopes that the Fed may avoid further aggressive monetary tightening. Lower interest rate expectations generally benefit non-yielding assets such as gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

The US dollar also remained under pressure due to continued declines in USD/JPY, as investors monitored the possibility of Japanese currency intervention.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments offered limited support. Qatar stated that US-Iran mediated negotiations had made "positive progress" toward a longer-term agreement, although Iran continued issuing navigation warnings for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold Awaits Weekly Close Above $4,165

Looking ahead, gold traders will closely watch whether bullion can secure a weekly close above the $4,165 support level, which could strengthen the current recovery.

However, profit-taking ahead of the weekend, reduced liquidity due to the US Independence Day holiday, and the prevailing bearish technical structure could limit additional gains.

Unless gold breaks decisively above major resistance levels, the broader outlook continues to favor cautious trading, with rallies likely to attract fresh selling interest.

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Gold Awaits Payrolls

Gold Spot Price Edges Higher Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Spot gold prices posted modest gains on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path in the coming months.

Market participants are closely watching the employment data, as stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.

As of 17:37 GMT, spot gold climbed 0.8% to $4,065.05 per troy ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,077.42 per troy ounce.

US Jobs Report in Focus

Economists expect the US economy to have added approximately 114,000 jobs in June, down from 172,000 in May, although the labor market is still considered relatively resilient. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%, where it has held since March.

Over the past three months, the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report has consistently exceeded market expectations, pushing the three-month average payroll gain to 188,000, the strongest level in nearly two years.

"Our forecasts continue to indicate a resilient labor market, reinforcing the view that employment growth has reaccelerated following last year's slowdown," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

Strong Labor Market Could Support Higher Interest Rates

Persistent strength in the US labor market could give the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to raise interest rates later this year, particularly as policymakers remain concerned about inflationary pressures linked to energy prices.

Although crude oil prices have eased following the framework peace agreement signed between the United States and Iran last month, uncertainty remains over whether the earlier surge in oil prices—triggered by the joint US-Israel military strikes on Iran in late February—will continue to fuel inflation over the longer term.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that markets have undergone a "hawkish repricing" in recent weeks. According to CME FedWatch expectations, investors now see the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as September.

Higher interest rates generally help contain inflation but can also slow economic growth and weaken labor market conditions.

Fed Rate Expectations Ease Slightly

Expectations for aggressive monetary tightening softened this week after separate employment data showed US private-sector hiring increased less than expected in June.

Adding to the shift in sentiment, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated on Wednesday that inflation risks in the United States have moderated, fueling speculation that the central bank may delay any immediate interest rate increase.

Interest rate expectations remain one of the primary drivers of gold prices, as higher borrowing costs reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as precious metals.

Stronger US Dollar Continues to Pressure Gold

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index edged slightly lower. However, expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve have kept the greenback well above levels seen before the geopolitical conflict.

A stronger US dollar typically weighs on gold prices by making the precious metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

"A stronger currency backdrop is prompting investors to reassess their positions after several weeks of heightened market volatility," said Neil Welsh, Head of Metals at Britannia Global Markets.

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Gold Prices Plunge

 

Gold Prices Plunge 12.4% in June, Marking Worst Monthly Loss in 18 Years

Gold prices tumbled more than 1% on Tuesday, putting the precious metal on track for its biggest monthly decline since October 2008, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East shifted investor focus toward rising U.S. interest rate expectations and persistent inflation concerns.

As of 11:45 WIB on Tuesday (June 30, 2026), spot gold fell 1.0% to $3,975.04 per troy ounce. The decline leaves gold down 12.4% for June, marking its fourth consecutive monthly loss and its worst monthly performance in 18 years.

Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for August 2026 delivery dropped 1.2% to $3,988.60 per troy ounce.

Gold is also on course for its first quarterly decline since 2024 and its steepest quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2013. Earlier surges in energy prices driven by the Iran conflict fueled inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates.

"You have high inflation, expectations for higher interest rates, and a stronger U.S. dollar, and that outweighs all the bullish factors that would normally support a gold rally," said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex.

Although gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates reduce its appeal because the precious metal does not generate interest income.

Markets are currently pricing in three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, while the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 64% probability of a rate increase in September.

Investors are now awaiting this week's ADP employment report and the June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for further clues about the Fed's monetary policy outlook.

The U.S. dollar strengthened and remained on track for its second consecutive monthly gain, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and adding further pressure to bullion prices.

Meanwhile, oil prices are heading for their sharpest quarterly decline since 2020 as investors closely monitor the outcome of Iran-U.S. discussions in Doha, despite Iran stating that no official meeting has been scheduled.

"Gold needs at least one of three conditions to improve: lower real yields, a weaker U.S. dollar, or reduced expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. Without these catalysts, any rally is likely to fade, and gold may continue consolidating below its previous highs," said Christopher Wong, Precious Metals Strategist at OCBC.

Other precious metals also traded lower. Spot silver fell 1.6% to $57.35 per ounce, platinum declined 0.5% to $1,566.90 per ounce, while palladium gained 0.5% to $1,219.55 per ounce. Despite the modest rise in palladium, all three metals remain on track to post both monthly and quarterly losses.

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