Gold Under Pressure

 

Gold Faces Downside Pressure Amid Hormuz Tensions and Rising Inflation Fears

Gold prices staged a modest rebound from a one-month low of $4,501 early Tuesday, often described as a dead cat bounce. However, the recovery appears fragile as sellers are likely to re-enter the market. Persistent demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset, combined with renewed geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, continues to weigh on the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is trading near $4,540.20 on the daily chart, maintaining a short-term bearish bias. The price remains capped below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,701.91, along with a stronger resistance cluster formed by the 100-day SMA at $4,766.49 and the 50-day SMA at $4,808.32. Although gold is still holding above the 200-day SMA at $4,293.14 and an ascending trendline support near $4,382.60, downside risks persist. A descending trendline resistance around $4,607.28 and a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) reading of 39.12 suggest that any upward moves may attract selling pressure as long as prices remain below key resistance levels.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near $4,607.28, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,701.91. A sustained breakout above this zone could open the door toward the 100-day SMA at $4,766.49 and eventually the 50-day SMA at $4,808.32. On the downside, initial support lies near current price levels, with stronger support located around the broken uptrend zone at $4,382.60, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,293.14. This area is expected to act as a key defense zone for buyers aiming to preserve the broader bullish trend.

Fundamental Outlook

Market sentiment remains risk-averse, favoring the US Dollar and limiting gold’s upside potential. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have reignited inflation concerns following a recent surge in oil prices.

These fears intensified after reports that US forces engaged Iranian units and sank several small vessels targeting civilian ships while attempting to reopen the strait. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key US ally, also reported intercepting multiple missiles and drones allegedly launched by Iran.

While Iran has neither fully confirmed nor denied these incidents, its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned that both the US and UAE should avoid being drawn deeper into conflict. Meanwhile, Iranian media cited military sources claiming that US forces attacked two civilian vessels carrying goods to Iran, though these ships were reportedly not linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate, gold could face sustained downward pressure due to a combination of stronger US Dollar demand and rising expectations of tighter monetary policy. Inflation concerns are likely to reinforce hawkish expectations for the US Federal Reserve, which typically acts as a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.

As long as geopolitical risks persist without signs of de-escalation, the US Dollar is expected to remain the preferred safe-haven asset, keeping gold vulnerable to further declines. Market participants are closely watching whether the fragile ceasefire in place since early April will hold or collapse amid rising tensions in the region.

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Gold Price Weakens

 

Gold Price Slips as Hawkish Central Banks Weigh on Market, Sellers Eye Break Below $4,600

Gold prices edged lower during Monday’s Asian session, attracting mild selling pressure while still showing resilience below the key $4,600 level. However, bearish momentum remains limited as traders await a confirmed breakdown. The cautious tone comes as major central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), maintain a hawkish stance amid concerns that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could reignite global inflation.

A brief move above $4,600 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) triggered short-covering in intraday trading. Still, the upside stalled near $4,650, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from April’s swing high. Technical indicators remain mixed— the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.33 signals moderate bullish momentum without being overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative. This suggests that bullish attempts are tentative despite prices holding above short-term trend levels.

For a stronger bullish continuation, gold needs a sustained breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $4,651. A successful move could extend the rebound from the recent one-month low near $4,500. The next resistance is seen at the 50% retracement level around $4,696. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 100-hour SMA near $4,623. A break below this level could expose the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $4,595, with a deeper decline potentially targeting the broader swing low near $4,505.

Fundamental Overview

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance continues to support the US Dollar (USD), limiting upside potential for non-yielding assets like gold, which is now on track for a second consecutive weekly loss.

Geopolitical tensions also remain in focus. US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, instead maintaining naval restrictions until a nuclear agreement is reached. Reports suggesting potential new US military actions against Iran have heightened fears of further escalation, boosting demand for the USD as a safe-haven currency and pressuring gold prices.

Meanwhile, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% last week. Notably, the decision recorded the highest level of dissent since 1992, with three policymakers opposing the policy stance. Recent US macroeconomic data reinforces the Fed’s cautious outlook—March inflation data showed continued price pressures alongside strong economic resilience, increasing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated into next year.

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.7% month-over-month in March, with the annual rate climbing to 3.5% from 2.8% in February. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.2% year-over-year, up from 3.0% previously. Additionally, preliminary GDP data showed the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026, a significant improvement from the revised 0.5% growth in Q4 2025.

Despite this, expectations for at least one 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026 have risen to over 15%, up sharply from just 1.3% previously. This shift is preventing aggressive USD buying and helping to limit further downside in gold prices.

Market attention now turns to upcoming US economic data releases, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later this week. At the same time, developments in the Middle East will remain a key driver of USD strength and overall gold price direction.

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Antam Gold Rebounds

 

Antam Gold Price Rebounds in Early May, Jumps Rp30,000 to Rp2,799,000 per Gram

After a brief decline, the price of Antam gold bars produced by PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam) has reversed الاتجاه and moved higher in early May trading. Based on official data from Logam Mulia, Antam gold prices surged by Rp30,000 to reach Rp2,799,000 per gram on Friday.

Despite the rebound, gold prices remain significantly below their all-time high of Rp3,168,000 per gram recorded on January 29, 2026.

The buyback price also posted a stronger increase, rising by Rp40,000 to Rp2,589,000 per gram, up from the previous Rp2,549,000. This indicates improved market sentiment and stronger demand for gold.

Price gains were seen across multiple denominations. The 0.5-gram gold bar climbed to Rp1,449,500 from Rp1,434,500. Meanwhile, the 2-gram size increased to Rp5,538,000 from Rp5,478,000, and the 5-gram bar rose to Rp13,770,000 from Rp13,620,000.

For investors considering larger purchases, Antam gold is also available in bigger sizes. The 25-gram bar is priced at Rp68,587,000, while the 50-gram bar reaches Rp137,095,000.

Latest Antam Gold Prices – May 1, 2026

• 0.5 gram: Rp1,449,500
• 1 gram: Rp2,799,000
• 2 grams: Rp5,538,000
• 5 grams: Rp13,770,000
• 10 grams: Rp27,485,000
• 25 grams: Rp68,587,000
• 50 grams: Rp137,095,000
• 100 grams: Rp274,112,000
• 250 grams: Rp685,015,000
• 500 grams: Rp1,369,820,000
• 1,000 grams: Rp2,739,600,000

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Gold Under Pressure

Gold Prices Remain Vulnerable Amid Rate Pressure and Strong US Dollar

Gold prices continue to face downside risks as global sentiment is weighed down by prolonged high interest rate expectations and a strengthening US dollar. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the precious metal struggles to maintain upward momentum.

According to Bloomberg data on Thursday (April 30, 2026) at 07:24 WIB, spot gold prices stood at $4,560.59 per troy ounce, marking a modest 0.28% daily increase. However, on a weekly basis, gold has declined by 2.84%, signaling persistent selling pressure in the market.

Sutopo Widodo, President Commissioner of HFX International Berjangka, noted that gold remains under pressure due to expectations that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer. This outlook increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, especially as US Treasury yields rise and the dollar strengthens.

“The expectation of prolonged high interest rates makes gold less attractive, particularly amid rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar,” Sutopo explained.

He highlighted that the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.35%, while the US Dollar Index remains above 98.5. These factors continue to reduce investor appetite for gold and silver, both of which do not generate yield.

Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have added further uncertainty to the market. Disruptions in global energy supply are keeping oil prices elevated, raising concerns over persistent inflation.

“This inflationary pressure may push central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance for a longer period,” Sutopo added.

Despite a slight rebound in daily trading, the recent uptick in gold prices is seen as a short-term technical correction after entering oversold territory. The recovery is largely driven by bargain hunting rather than a shift in the overall trend.

In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain under pressure. However, the medium- to long-term outlook still points to a bullish trend.

Sutopo cautioned that a deeper correction remains possible, particularly if geopolitical tensions ease. Historically, gold has experienced significant pullbacks—falling حوالي 19% in 2020 from $2,075 to $1,680 per ounce, and dropping as much as 45% between 2011 and 2013.

“Gold could potentially correct by 30% to 45% again if geopolitical tensions subside. This scenario could even unfold within this year,” he concluded.

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Gold Awaits Fed

Gold Prices Edge Higher as Investors Await Fed Signals and Middle East Developments

Gold prices inched up during early Asian trading on April 29, as investors remained cautious ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants are closely watching for clues on how the ongoing Iran conflict and stalled peace negotiations could impact the global economy.

As of 08:30 WIB, spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,598.45 per ounce, rebounding slightly after hitting its lowest level since April 2 in the previous session. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for June 2026 delivery also gained 0.1% to $4,612.10 per ounce.

Market sentiment continues to be influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Efforts to resolve the Iran conflict have reached a stalemate, with U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly dissatisfied with Tehran’s latest proposal, signaling ongoing uncertainty in the region.

On the monetary policy front, investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting later today. Attention is also turning to upcoming decisions from other major central banks this week, including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada.

In Asia, demand signals remain strong. China, the world’s largest gold consumer, imported a net 47.866 metric tons of gold via Hong Kong in March, up from 46.249 tons in February, according to official data released Tuesday.

Looking ahead, energy prices are projected to surge by 24% in 2026, potentially reaching their highest levels since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to the World Bank. The outlook depends heavily on whether disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts ease by May.

Oil prices also climbed nearly 3% on Tuesday, driven by persistent concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. These concerns outweighed market reactions to reports that the United Arab Emirates may exit OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance.

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Gold Prices Rise

Gold Prices Edge Up as Traders Watch US-Iran Talks

Gold prices posted a modest gain in early Tuesday trading (April 28, 2026), as market participants closely monitored ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran.

As of 07:46 WIB, gold futures for June 2026 delivery on the Commodity Exchange rose 0.3% to US$4,707.70 per troy ounce, up from US$4,693.79 in the previous session.

The slight uptick in gold prices reflects cautious sentiment among traders, who are evaluating renewed diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving tensions involving Iran. Safe-haven demand remains supported amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

According to Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump held a meeting with national security officials to discuss Iran’s latest peace proposal. However, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized that the United States continues to uphold strict conditions in any agreement to end the conflict.

The statement follows reports that Tehran proposed a temporary deal involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting US blockades on vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports.

“An indefinite extension of the ceasefire, while the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, would prolong market uncertainty,” said Marc Loeffert, a precious metals trader at Heraeus, as cited by Bloomberg.

Looking ahead, analysts suggest that a combination of economic stagnation and rising inflation could further strengthen gold’s long-term appeal as a safe-haven asset.

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