Gold Awaits Payrolls

Gold Spot Price Edges Higher Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Spot gold prices posted modest gains on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path in the coming months.

Market participants are closely watching the employment data, as stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.

As of 17:37 GMT, spot gold climbed 0.8% to $4,065.05 per troy ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,077.42 per troy ounce.

US Jobs Report in Focus

Economists expect the US economy to have added approximately 114,000 jobs in June, down from 172,000 in May, although the labor market is still considered relatively resilient. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%, where it has held since March.

Over the past three months, the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report has consistently exceeded market expectations, pushing the three-month average payroll gain to 188,000, the strongest level in nearly two years.

"Our forecasts continue to indicate a resilient labor market, reinforcing the view that employment growth has reaccelerated following last year's slowdown," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

Strong Labor Market Could Support Higher Interest Rates

Persistent strength in the US labor market could give the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to raise interest rates later this year, particularly as policymakers remain concerned about inflationary pressures linked to energy prices.

Although crude oil prices have eased following the framework peace agreement signed between the United States and Iran last month, uncertainty remains over whether the earlier surge in oil prices—triggered by the joint US-Israel military strikes on Iran in late February—will continue to fuel inflation over the longer term.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that markets have undergone a "hawkish repricing" in recent weeks. According to CME FedWatch expectations, investors now see the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as September.

Higher interest rates generally help contain inflation but can also slow economic growth and weaken labor market conditions.

Fed Rate Expectations Ease Slightly

Expectations for aggressive monetary tightening softened this week after separate employment data showed US private-sector hiring increased less than expected in June.

Adding to the shift in sentiment, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated on Wednesday that inflation risks in the United States have moderated, fueling speculation that the central bank may delay any immediate interest rate increase.

Interest rate expectations remain one of the primary drivers of gold prices, as higher borrowing costs reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as precious metals.

Stronger US Dollar Continues to Pressure Gold

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index edged slightly lower. However, expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve have kept the greenback well above levels seen before the geopolitical conflict.

A stronger US dollar typically weighs on gold prices by making the precious metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

"A stronger currency backdrop is prompting investors to reassess their positions after several weeks of heightened market volatility," said Neil Welsh, Head of Metals at Britannia Global Markets.

Share:

Read More

Gold Prices Plunge

 

Gold Prices Plunge 12.4% in June, Marking Worst Monthly Loss in 18 Years

Gold prices tumbled more than 1% on Tuesday, putting the precious metal on track for its biggest monthly decline since October 2008, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East shifted investor focus toward rising U.S. interest rate expectations and persistent inflation concerns.

As of 11:45 WIB on Tuesday (June 30, 2026), spot gold fell 1.0% to $3,975.04 per troy ounce. The decline leaves gold down 12.4% for June, marking its fourth consecutive monthly loss and its worst monthly performance in 18 years.

Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for August 2026 delivery dropped 1.2% to $3,988.60 per troy ounce.

Gold is also on course for its first quarterly decline since 2024 and its steepest quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2013. Earlier surges in energy prices driven by the Iran conflict fueled inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates.

"You have high inflation, expectations for higher interest rates, and a stronger U.S. dollar, and that outweighs all the bullish factors that would normally support a gold rally," said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex.

Although gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates reduce its appeal because the precious metal does not generate interest income.

Markets are currently pricing in three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, while the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 64% probability of a rate increase in September.

Investors are now awaiting this week's ADP employment report and the June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for further clues about the Fed's monetary policy outlook.

The U.S. dollar strengthened and remained on track for its second consecutive monthly gain, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and adding further pressure to bullion prices.

Meanwhile, oil prices are heading for their sharpest quarterly decline since 2020 as investors closely monitor the outcome of Iran-U.S. discussions in Doha, despite Iran stating that no official meeting has been scheduled.

"Gold needs at least one of three conditions to improve: lower real yields, a weaker U.S. dollar, or reduced expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. Without these catalysts, any rally is likely to fade, and gold may continue consolidating below its previous highs," said Christopher Wong, Precious Metals Strategist at OCBC.

Other precious metals also traded lower. Spot silver fell 1.6% to $57.35 per ounce, platinum declined 0.5% to $1,566.90 per ounce, while palladium gained 0.5% to $1,219.55 per ounce. Despite the modest rise in palladium, all three metals remain on track to post both monthly and quarterly losses.

Share:

Read More

Gold Holds Weakness

Gold Holds Near $4,050 as US-Iran Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns

Gold prices trimmed part of their daily losses but remained under pressure, trading near $4,070 during the Asian session on Monday. The precious metal struggled to gain momentum after renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran in the strategic Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices higher, reigniting global inflation concerns and weighing on investor sentiment.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Remains Intact

On the daily chart, XAU/USD was trading at $4,068.30, extending its decline well below key short- and medium-term moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish outlook.

Spot gold continues to trade below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,240.86, the 50-day SMA at $4,453.85, and the 200-day SMA at $4,479.26. Meanwhile, the longer-term 100-day SMA remains significantly higher at $4,674.59, highlighting a strong resistance zone that bulls must overcome before any meaningful recovery can develop.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is hovering around 36, indicating persistent bearish momentum while remaining above oversold territory.

Adding to the negative outlook, gold confirmed a Death Cross after the 50-day SMA closed below the 200-day SMA at Friday's weekly close, a technical signal often associated with further downside risk.

Immediate resistance is located around the 21-day SMA at $4,240.86, followed by stronger barriers at the 50-day SMA ($4,453.85) and the 200-day SMA ($4,479.26). A sustained breakout above these technical levels could pave the way toward the 100-day SMA near $4,674.59. Until then, gold remains vulnerable to additional selling pressure, with traders closely monitoring fresh support below the current $4,068.30 area.

Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Expectations Drive Gold Market

Investors remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, continuously reassessing regional stability and its broader impact on global risk sentiment.

However, gold prices recovered part of their intraday losses after Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary ceasefire ahead of crucial peace negotiations scheduled to take place in Doha on Tuesday. The diplomatic breakthrough eased geopolitical tensions that had recently shaken global financial markets.

The ceasefire followed several days of escalating military exchanges after an unidentified projectile struck a cargo vessel on Thursday. Both nations accused each other of violating the temporary truce originally established on June 17, prompting renewed uncertainty before agreeing to resume diplomatic talks in Qatar.

Beyond geopolitical developments, non-yielding assets such as gold continue to face headwinds from persistent expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of gold, as investors shift toward interest-bearing assets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 59.7% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as September 2026.

Market Focus Turns to US Jobs Report

Attention is now shifting to this week's critical U.S. labor market data, culminating in Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The employment figures are expected to provide fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest-rate path.

Wall Street economists forecast that the U.S. economy added approximately 114,000 jobs in June, while the national unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

Share:

Read More

Gold Extends Losses

Gold Heads for Fourth Straight Weekly Loss as Strong US Dollar, Fed Rate Hike Bets Weigh

Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again later this year.

Spot gold slipped 0.7% to US$3,998.74 per ounce as of 03:52 WIB, while U.S. gold futures declined 0.8% to US$4,015.90 per ounce.

Bullion is set to record a weekly loss of nearly 4% and has dropped approximately 12% so far this month, reflecting persistent selling pressure as investors adjust their expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

Among other precious metals, silver fell 2.5% to US$56.44 per ounce, putting it on course for a weekly decline of around 13%. Platinum also dropped 1.8% to US$1,573.60 per ounce and is heading for its seventh consecutive weekly loss.

The U.S. dollar remained close to its highest level in 13 months and was on track for a second straight weekly gain, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and reducing global demand.

The greenback continued to draw support from expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy further as inflation remains elevated.

Data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—rose 4.1% year-over-year in May, marking its highest reading in more than three years and the first time it has exceeded 4% since 2023.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, financial markets are now pricing in a 63% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

XAU/USD Outlook

Despite the broader weakness, gold limited its losses as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East after a cargo ship reported an attack near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting ongoing geopolitical risks despite an initial peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

The incident briefly boosted safe-haven demand for gold. However, the renewed geopolitical concerns were not enough to offset pressure from the stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, leaving the precious metal on track for another weekly decline.

Share:

Read More

Gold Under Pressure

Gold Nears Seven-Month Low as Stronger U.S. Dollar and Hawkish Fed Pressure Prices

Gold prices extended their decline on Thursday, hovering near their lowest level in more than seven months, as a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continued to weigh on demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,992.60 per ounce as of 16:56 WIB, while U.S. Gold Futures remained largely unchanged at $4,008.22 per ounce.

The precious metal dropped below the key $4,000-per-ounce level on Wednesday for the first time since November 2025. Gold has now lost nearly 30% of its value from the all-time high of $5,595.46 per ounce recorded in January.

Stronger Dollar and Fed Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on Gold

Gold’s latest weakness comes as the U.S. dollar remains near a 13-month high after posting gains for six consecutive trading sessions. The rally has been fueled by increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again later this year.

According to CME FedWatch data, markets are currently pricing in roughly a one-third probability of a rate hike in July and a 66% chance of additional monetary tightening in September.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which does not generate interest income.

“Gold’s weakness highlights the extent to which markets have shifted their focus away from safe-haven demand and toward the implications of higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions,” ING analysts said in a recent report.

Easing Geopolitical Risks Reduce Safe-Haven Demand

The recent decline also reflects a broader reassessment of safe-haven demand. Reduced geopolitical concerns following progress in U.S.-Iran peace efforts, combined with lower oil prices, have diminished some of the risk premium that supported gold earlier this year.

Market participants are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for further clues regarding the future path of monetary policy.

Silver, Platinum, and Copper Market Update

Among other precious metals, silver edged up 0.1% to $57.50 per ounce after plunging more than 6% in the previous session.

“Although the silver market is expected to remain in deficit, some of its strongest demand drivers are beginning to lose momentum,” ING analysts added.

Meanwhile, platinum slipped 0.3% to $1,581.60 per ounce after tumbling 4.5% on Wednesday.

In the base metals market, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.7% to $13,255.95 per metric ton, while U.S. copper futures gained 1.6% to $6.04 per pound.

XAU/USD Outlook

Gold traders remain focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals. Any indication of persistent inflationary pressures could strengthen expectations for further interest rate hikes, potentially keeping downward pressure on XAU/USD in the near term.

However, renewed geopolitical tensions, weaker economic data, or a shift toward a more dovish Fed stance could provide support for gold prices and revive safe-haven demand.

Share:

Read More

Gold Extends Losses

Gold Prices Fall to Two-Week Low as Stronger US Dollar Weighs on Market Sentiment

Gold prices extended their decline on Wednesday, falling to their lowest level in nearly two weeks and testing the key psychological support level of $4,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Spot gold dropped 1.1% to $4,067.72 per ounce as of 12:42 WIB, after briefly touching an intraday low of $4,050.60 earlier in the session.

Meanwhile, US gold futures declined 1.6% to $4,083.60 per ounce.

Bullion has now posted losses in five of the last six trading sessions and recently recorded its third consecutive weekly decline, highlighting increasing bearish momentum in the precious metals market.

Stronger Dollar and Hawkish Fed Outlook Pressure Gold

The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a 13-month high on Wednesday as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as July, followed by another hike later this year.

A stronger US dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

Market participants significantly raised expectations for additional monetary tightening following last week's Federal Reserve policy meeting and a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials.

Current market pricing indicates approximately a 70% probability of a rate hike in September, with another increase fully anticipated by December.

“Strength in the US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer are outweighing safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks,” analysts at ING said in a market note.

Easing Middle East Supply Concerns Add to Downside Pressure

Gold also faced additional headwinds as concerns over potential energy supply disruptions in the Middle East continued to ease.

Investors are closely monitoring ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran after both sides signaled progress toward implementing a broader peace framework aimed at normalizing energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, uncertainty remains over key issues, including nuclear inspections and access to frozen Iranian assets.

“While geopolitical risks remain elevated, gold is likely to continue trading in line with Federal Reserve expectations, leaving prices vulnerable to higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar in the near term,” ING analysts added.

Markets Await Key US PCE Inflation Data

Investors are now focusing on the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report scheduled for release on Thursday, which could provide fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction.

Other Precious Metals and Copper Performance

Among other precious metals, silver rebounded 0.8% to $61.12 per ounce after plunging more than 5% in the previous session.

Platinum slipped 1.2% to $1,634.81 per ounce.

In the base metals market, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) edged down 0.3% to $13,343.88 per metric ton, while US copper futures declined 0.6% to $6.10 per pound.

Share:

Read More